Monday, June 18, 2007



just a few minutes ago here in the office everything started shaking. one thought came to mind: what if it is "The Big One"? It wasn't the big one (obviously, because i would probably be dead if it was), but it prompted me to think about what i will do when the big one actually does come. For those of you who don't know about the big one, read this:

There are two scenarios for Greater Vancouver, says the National Earthquake Support Plan (NESP), a study into the region's earthquake preparedness. The first is the most likely: a moderately strong 6 to 7 Richter-scale quake, similar to the ones that hit San Francisco and Los Angeles in the past decade. This would produce significant damage and deaths in Vancouver. Since the 1989 San Francisco quake, a lot of engineering work has been done to upgrade local bridges and dams against seismic hazards. But little has been done about the vulnerability of older, masonry-walled schools, hospital buildings and brick structures like those in Gastown and Yaletown. Some could collapse. Even in a moderate quake, soil liquefaction would likely break the dykes along the Fraser River and the Georgia Strait foreshore, producing widespread flooding. Similar soil liquefaction would also likely affect many structures on reclaimed lands, especially those built on the periphery of False Creek, the Arbutus lowlands, the riverbanks of the Fraser, Sea Island and the Burrard Inlet waterfront all the way to Port Moody. Landslides and underwater slumpages would drop shoreline houses and port facilities. Power, gas and water systems could be affected for days.

The second--and less likely--NESP scenario, based on an 8.5 subduction quake in the Lower Mainland, would produce severe destruction within 100 kilometres of the epicentre. Many buildings would fail. Liquefaction would likely damage the airport, the Fraser Valley dykes, the Massey Tunnel and those bridge supports sunk into loose valley soils. Western sections of the Fraser Valley would flood. Up to 45 per cent of Vancouver's schools would suffer moderate to total collapse. Tsunamis and underwater slumpage would damage shoreline facilities, producing almost inevitable chemical spills, fires and mass evacuations. The death toll would be in the thousands.

The reality is that when it hits, a major earthquake in the Greater Vancouver area would be a disaster. Most wood-framed homes would ride out the shaking with little serious risk to their occupants. Modern structures, including all highrises and office towers, would remain standing. The old and vulnerable water system would inevitably fail. Gas mains would break and fires would follow. Sections of bridges, port facilities and old masonry-walled buildings would collapse. Train lines, roads and electrical distribution systems would fail. Loose objects within offices, factories and homes would be hurled around. Cornices and chimneys would fall. Glass would fly. Many people would die. Earthquakes search out the most vulnerable sections of a structure. And the Vancouver area has many older buildings that have never been tested in a great quake. The longer the shaking lasts, the worse it will be--as small initial structural failures grow exponentially as the vibrations continue. Someday this will happen here. Nothing can protect Vancouver from things that go bump in the night.

-Some random website trying to make people freak out...

yeah, so basically some really large earthquake is scheduled to destroy Vancouver as we all know it within the next couple hundred years, which means it could happen tomorrow.

I decided that I have only one emergency plan: to run screaming out of whatever building I'm in (i don't think getting under the desk like they taught us in school will help if the building collapses.).

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

uh yeah... you do that.
that post basically scared me.

kristina said...

I don't think running and screaming would do you any good...

you would probably fall and get crushed my some kind of large object flying around

so either way.


not good. not good

joel sczebel said...

well if i've learned anything from movies there are really only two things to do in such a catastrophe:

1. run around screaming until you're killed by a flying object

or

2. stand in a remarkably unwise place trying to get a good picture on your camera phone until you're killed by a flying object.

....but if you're being paid millions of dollars by a film company, there is a high likelihood that you will escape and become a hero.

Anonymous said...

hahaha...well i guess "the Big one" is in God's hands, he is in control and knows the best time (if ever) for it to come. Either way i am sure it will be to bring glory to himself, which is a good thing.


as for escape... hiding under desks is no good, it is scientifically proven. i would scream and run and leave the rest to HIM.

joel sczebel said...

good call.

Anonymous said...

i like your new header, its rad.

overthinker said...

so it's a good thing i'm not coming this summer.

haha.

i like jeremy's view on things.

Aly Sczebel said...

i really don't like the idea of hiding under a desk for 2 reasons.

1. what is the chance it will actually hold under hundreds of of thousands pounds of rubble. i am thinking not so much.

2. if for some bizarre reason it DOES hold up, i am then trapped under a extremely claustrophobic little desk. i am thinking not so much.

so

i think i am dead. heaven is better the a claustrophobic little desk terror.

karawarnock; said...

actually you guys are right. don't hid under a desk. you're supposed to sit next to a reasonably large object so that if something does happen to fall near you it would land on the reasonably large object first creating a safe area where you are.


all i remember about the last earthquake is my teacher mad at me which is really a long story and i'd rather not bring back bad memories.

and good for you jeremy. fine and dandy.

kristina said...

I've also heard you're suppose to stand under a door way.

but I don't see how that would do you any good either

joel sczebel said...

maybe everyone could just go outside. then there are fewer flying objects to kill you.

Anonymous said...

if standing under a door way the beam at the top could fall and crush you.

screaming and running til your outside is the a good idea, but it wouldnt stop things from falling on you. There are still trees...

faith is still the best option.

nate said...

I couldn't really help but run and scream. Whether it was inside or outside..

Josh Sczebel said...

i think that .

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work.